Disease Prevalence Modelling

Author: David Lamb, Salford NHS

(based on Health Knowledge materials)

Disease prevalence modelling estimates the number of people with a disease or risk factor in a population when direct evidence such as local surveys, is not available.  In January 2011 the Association of Public Health Observatories (APHO) published a technical report on prevalence modelling.  It outlines why there is a need, methods, validation procedures, projections and forecasts using models, and the strengths and limitations . They also produce prevalence models for Cancer, Dementia, Diabetes and many others that are available for download.

In this video, David outlines some examples of disease prevalence modelling whilst highlighting the information sources, statistical and validation methods and how the estimates were used.